Spatio-temporal assessment of frost risks during the flowering of pear trees in Belgium for 1971–2068

Over the last decades, fruit trees in Europe have tended to flower earlier due warmer winters. The impact of destructive spring frosts remains considerable as exemplified by damage during pome flowering Belgium between 2017 and 2021. While several regional studies on evolution this phenomenon exist, pear (Pyrus communis) has received little attention. We focused commercially important cultivar ‘Conference’ using data from 1971 2018, climate projections 2068. A calibrated phenological model was applied selected members CMIP5 EUROCORDEX ensemble for emission scenarios RCP 4.5 8.5 determine timing period coinciding frost events (<-2 °C). recursive multivariate quantile mapping correction monthly series minimum maximum temperature provided most consistent reduction negative bias time compared observations. Flowering current production area started average 7.5 (10.8) days under scenario (8.5), occurred 12.8 (17.9) 2019–2068 1971–2018. Sen's slope coefficient indicated an overall advancement 1.25 (1.55) per decade flowering; 2.06 (2.23) around 25% fewer a projected future period. Pear orchards northern lowlands were less exposed than regions with elevations above 300 m. remain potential threat future, change did not induce more frequent relocation is therefore recommended.